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The GitHub Copilot New Signup Shock | The Full Story Behind Claude Opus Pro's Removal
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2026年4月26日・29分で読める
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"GitHub Copilot sign-ups suddenly stopped" — the culprit is the "individual plan suspension" announced by GitHub on April 20, 2026.
New registrations have been frozen across Copilot Pro, Pro+, and Student, and on top of that, Pro subscribers will lose access to Claude Opus — a shocking set of measures.
The cause: an "agentic AI (autonomously operating AI) consuming computational resources so aggressively that a single request can exceed the monthly subscription fee" — an abnormal situation.
This article provides a thorough breakdown of what happened.
Let's start with the facts.
On April 20, 2026, GitHub — a subsidiary of Microsoft — announced on its official blog that it would "temporarily suspend new registrations for Copilot Pro, Pro+, and Student individual plans."
The Free plan continues to accept new users, but all paid individual plans have effectively closed their doors.
Individual developers who want to start using Copilot as a paid subscriber today are, in principle, unable to sign up.
However, existing users may continue using the service, and plan upgrades (Pro → Pro+) are also permitted.
It has become like a VIP hotel that says "no new guests, but regulars can stay as usual."
Microsoft's official statement explains this as being "to protect service reliability and the experience of existing users."
The other shock is the model reduction.
To clarify the terminology: Claude Opus is a high-performance AI model provided by Anthropic, known for its strength in complex reasoning and long-form coding.
This Opus model family is being completely removed from the $10/month Pro plan.
Opus 4.7 will be exclusive to the $39/month Pro+, and Opus 4.5 and 4.6 will be gradually removed from Pro+ as well.
The message is clear: "If you want Opus, pay nearly four times as much."
GitHub's announcement contained a striking line: "Individual requests are routinely generating costs that exceed the monthly fee users are paying" — meaning a single query can consume an entire month's subscription.
The old Copilot was an autocomplete tool that "predicted one line of code at a time."
But in Agent Mode — a feature where AI autonomously executes tasks — the AI spends anywhere from minutes to hours reading files, writing code, running tests, and fixing errors, all automatically in a continuous loop.
Think of the evolution from "a helpful assistant" to "a junior engineer who figures things out independently."
The problem is cost.
Agents spin up sub-agents (child processes) in parallel, consuming tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of tokens (the unit of AI processing) all at once.
Long-running sessions became the norm, far exceeding GitHub's projected usage volumes.
According to InfoWorld reporting, "it became commonplace for a small number of requests to generate costs exceeding what a user pays per month."
Imagine a bar that offers an all-you-can-drink deal for the price of a single soft drink, only to have customers ordering bottles of premium spirits every night.
Inference on AI models requires NVIDIA's high-performance GPUs (computing units).
Combined with a global GPU shortage, even Microsoft Azure's data centers are struggling to secure sufficient compute resources.
The Register reported "rate limits on Copilot users triggering continuously for hours on end."
Some Pro+ users took to GitHub's community forums, crying out that they had been hit with "permanent rate limiting."
Here is a breakdown of exactly what changed.
Many developers view this as "effectively a 4× price hike from $10 to $39." GitHub itself is pitching Pro+ as "value for the investment," but for existing Pro subscribers it represents a real degradation of service.
GitHub also announced accommodations for existing users:
An unusual refund scheme that essentially says "anyone who isn't satisfied can leave for free." It conveys the seriousness of Microsoft's situation.
The uproar has led to a surge in developers considering switching to competing AI coding tools. Here is a comparison of the three major services.
The real change this time is that "Copilot Pro's position as the cheapest option at $10 is no longer available to new users." Cursor Pro, Windsurf Pro, and Claude Code Pro — all at $20 — have emerged as "realistic options for new users."
To keep this from feeling like a distant foreign story, here are four scenarios reflecting what is actually happening on the ground in Japan.
Engineer A handles front-end development at a contract development firm in Tokyo.
"Copilot Pro was the best deal — unlimited Claude Opus for $10/month — and now it's suddenly GPT-only," they said, visibly disappointed.
The team is urgently exploring a mass migration to Cursor Pro.
"The seamless experience as a VSCode extension is hard to give up, but without Opus it loses the point" — their internal Slack is buzzing.
CTO B leads an AI product development startup.
All 10 engineers on the team use Copilot Business.
"I was relieved to hear the Business plan isn't affected, but the Pro+ situation isn't someone else's problem."
Anticipating a shift in billing models for the agentic AI era, B is obtaining parallel quotes for Cursor Business and Claude Code Enterprise.
"There's a real possibility Business plans get a price hike within six months," they warned.
C is a third-year university student studying programming at a faculty of informatics.
"My juniors can't sign up now that Student is suspended — it's causing real problems," they said, confused.
With new student discount applications halted, universities that had built their programming instruction around Copilot are now reconsidering their approach.
Faculty members are reportedly at a loss over "which to teach — Claude Code, Cursor, or Windsurf."
D develops apps as a side business.
"Pro+ at $39 is too expensive. I'm switching to Claude Code Pro at $20" — an immediate decision.
"I can use Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 directly and save $19 a month," D said, satisfied.
"I was choosing GitHub for its brand value and integration convenience, but if the core models are restricted, the appeal is cut in half."
In Japan's independent developer community, the hashtag #CopilotRefugee (#Copilot難民) trended on Twitter (X) as of April 21, 2026, turning into a full-blown social media event.
The burning question is: "When will new signups reopen?" The short answer is that a fundamental overhaul of the billing structure will need to come first.
According to a scoop by journalist Edward Zitron, Microsoft plans to transition Copilot from "request-based billing" to "token-based billing."
By charging based on tokens (the smallest unit of AI processing), the goal is a pricing structure that reflects actual costs.
Think of it as switching water billing from a flat monthly rate to a pay-per-use meter — a sweeping reform where heavy users end up paying more.
Industry analysts view the suspension as a measure lasting weeks to months.
The leading scenario has Microsoft announcing a new pricing structure between July and September, with new signups reopening from October onward.
However, analysts also note that if AI infrastructure constraints persist, the reopening could be pushed back further.
Copilot's moves are a harbinger for the entire AI coding tool industry.
Windsurf already transitioned from a credit system to a daily quota system in March; Cursor and Claude Code are also progressively tightening usage limits.
The shared consensus across the industry is that "the era of unlimited flat-rate AI tools" is ending in 2026.
Rather than feeling anxious, here are three concrete actions developers can realistically take starting tomorrow.
A. Yes.
Claude Opus models will no longer be available.
GPT-4o, GPT-5-series, Gemini, Claude Sonnet, and others remain accessible.
Users who primarily relied on Opus will need to either upgrade to Pro+ ($39) or switch to another service.
Until May 20, 2026, you can cancel without penalty and receive a full refund for April, so those who aren't satisfied should decide promptly.
A. GitHub has not announced a specific date.
Industry analysts widely expect a new pricing structure to be announced between July and September 2026, with reopening to follow in October or later.
Microsoft's reopening is expected to happen gradually once the transition to "token-based billing" is complete.
Developers who can't wait should consider other services in the meantime.
A. The current measures apply only to individual plans (Pro, Pro+, Student).
Business ($19/user) and Enterprise ($39/user) continue to accept new registrations.
However, stricter rate limiting is reportedly being applied progressively to corporate plans as well.
Enterprises with large-scale usage should build BCP (business continuity plans) that account for potential price hikes or tightened restrictions within the coming months.
A. The free plan continues to accept new registrations, and its core specs (2,000 completions/month, 50 premium requests) are unchanged.
However, agent mode usage does have a cap.
It's insufficient for serious coding work, but it's perfectly adequate as an introduction to AI-assisted coding or for light personal use.
"Try with Copilot Free, go to production with Cursor/Claude Code" is becoming the new standard split.
A. If you want a visual, IDE-based experience, choose Cursor. If you want CLI-based automation, choose Claude Code.
Cursor ($20) is a VSCode-based AI editor whose strength is intuitive usability, even for beginners.
Claude Code ($20) is a CLI tool that runs in the terminal, excelling at scripting, CI/CD integration, and agentic workflows.
Both are priced the same at $20/month, so try the trial versions of both and decide from there.
A. The probability is high.
Windsurf already changed its billing structure on March 19, 2026, and Cursor is also reportedly tightening usage limits incrementally.
GPU shortages and rising power costs for AI servers are a common challenge across the entire industry, and a scenario where $20 Pro plans rise to $30–$40 during 2026 is very plausible.
Locking in an annual contract while prices are still low is also worth considering.
GitHub Copilot's current measures are not "a temporary glitch" — they mark a turning point at which the entire AI coding tool industry faces "the end of the unlimited subscription era."
The value of agentic AI is undeniable, yet its cost structure is fundamentally mismatched with the traditional flat-rate model — the transition to token-based billing to bridge this gap is an unavoidable future.
Rather than fear it, understand it.
Once you understand it, choose.
Once you've chosen, act.
The savvy developer in the AI era starts today with one decisive step among three options: stay, move, or diversify.
This article is a cross-post from AI Friends.
