Crowdfunding Field Judgment ③ | What's the Difference Between a ¥1M and ¥10M Goal? What I Look at Before the Amount
機械翻訳 / Machine-translated

機械翻訳 / Machine-translated
クラファン現場判断②|この企画はクラファンをやらない方がいい?僕が相談で止める5つのケース
In crowdfunding consultations, I sometimes hear things like:
"I'd like to raise around ¥10 million."
"If possible, I'm aiming for ¥30 million."
Of course, there's nothing wrong with having big goals.
But I don't believe that
a ¥1M crowdfunding campaign, multiplied by 10 times the effort, simply becomes ¥10M.
As the target amount grows larger, the entire design of things like
Backers.
Rewards.
Corporate sponsors.
Outreach.
Internal capacity.
Pre-launch preparation.
all need to change.
That's why, after asking,
"How much do you want to raise?"
I look at
who will support that amount, and how.
To simplify straightforwardly:
Target: ¥1,000,000.
At an average pledge of ¥10,000,
that's about 100 people.
Of course, platform fees, reward costs, and other factors mean the actual financial plan is more detailed.
But the first thing I look at is,
can you picture the faces of those 100 people?
Existing customers.
Friends and acquaintances.
Business contacts.
Social media followers.
People in the local community.
Past clients.
From these circles, you can think through
"how to reach 100 people."
When you can do that, a ¥1M goal starts to feel achievable.
So what about ¥10 million?
At ¥10,000 per pledge, that's 1,000 people.
But in actual consultations, I almost never design a campaign around
"let's gather 1,000 people"
alone.
When aiming for ¥10M, I think about whether we can combine
General pledges.
Core reward tiers.
High-value reward tiers.
Corporate sponsors.
Bulk purchases.
Existing customers.
Corporate demand.
in other words,
multiple support routes.
For example:
Will we build the ¥10M purely from ¥10,000 pledges?
Is there a core product at ¥30,000 or ¥50,000?
Are there companies willing to participate at ¥100,000 or more?
This is where the structure changes dramatically.
The larger the crowdfunding campaign,
the more important it is to design not just the number of backers, but the composition of support.
I want to raise ¥10 million.
But if:
Only about 10 people seem likely to move on launch day.
You haven't yet approached any companies.
You haven't even informed your existing customers.
then I won't set ¥10M as the goal just as-is.
On the other hand, if:
You have existing customers.
You have several hundred potential buyers.
You have corporate sponsor candidates.
You have specific people in mind for high-value rewards.
You're already in conversation with multiple companies before launch.
then a big goal becomes worth considering.
In short,
the target amount isn't a "wish figure" — it's derived from the support structure you can build before launch.
That is my fundamental approach.
One benchmark I use in the field is:
30% on launch day
50% within 3 days
100% of the first goal within 1 week.
This isn't an official success standard — it's a benchmark I personally use to assess the state of preparation.
For example, if the first goal is ¥1M:
¥300,000 on launch day.
For ¥10M:
¥3,000,000 on launch day.
That's when I ask myself:
"Who will pledge ¥3,000,000 on day one?"
Asking this question makes it quite clear whether the target amount is realistic.
Even if someone wants to raise ¥10M,
if there's no visible route to ¥3M in pledges on day one, the preparation simply isn't there yet.
The bigger the goal,
the bigger the pre-launch design needs to be.
When aiming for ¥10M or more,
corporate sponsors and high-value reward tiers often come into play.
But simply calculating
¥100,000 × 20 companies.
¥300,000 × 10 companies.
on a spreadsheet means nothing.
What I ask is:
"Who are those 20 companies?"
You can name the companies specifically.
You're already in talks with them.
They have a reason to participate.
You have a relationship with their contact person.
Only when all of this is visible does a number become real.
High-value rewards are not created to inflate the amount.
They are created because there are people who will pledge at that amount.
This becomes increasingly important the larger the campaign.
Another thing I always look at is:
would it actually be okay if ¥10M really came in?
For products:
Can you manufacture quantities beyond your projections?
Can you handle shipping?
Is your cash flow manageable?
For venues or facilities:
Can you truly execute the project?
For sponsors:
Can you fulfill the commitments made to each company?
In crowdfunding, the risk isn't only
failing to raise enough —
there is also the risk of raising too much.
If you're aiming for a large amount,
you need not only the power to gather support,
but also the capacity to receive it.
Just because a project requires ¥10M to execute
doesn't mean the first goal must be ¥10M.
I sometimes set the first goal by thinking about
the minimum needed to make execution possible.
Once that is reached:
What gets realized next?
What happens if even more comes in?
That's the framework.
However, this does not mean
"set it extremely low just to make it look like you hit 100%."
The first goal still needs a genuine reason for execution.
The target amount is not a theatrical device —
it's a number that shows the stages of a project.
For large-amount consultations, I look especially at:
How many initial backer candidates are there?
What is the average pledge amount for the core reward tier?
Are there specific candidates for corporate or high-value pledges?
Is there a route to drive 30% of the goal on launch day?
Can the project be executed even if support exceeds expectations?
If these aren't clear,
I won't place a figure like ¥10M out front on its own.
¥1,000,000 and ¥10,000,000.
In numbers alone, it's a 10× difference.
But the difference I see in the field is
the structure of who is supporting the campaign.
Who pledges?
How much are general pledges?
Who makes high-value pledges?
How do companies participate?
How much moves on launch day?
Can you execute after the funds come in?
The bigger the goal, the more this design work is needed.
That's why I
think about "who will create that amount" before I think about "how much to raise."
A target amount is not a number for writing down your hopes.
I believe it's the number that emerges after stacking up backers, rewards, and pre-launch preparation.
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