The Era of 10 Million Vacant Homes Is Near — Three Years Into the Revised Vacant House Act: Reality and Unfinished Business

Lead

Let's start with the facts. The 2023 Housing and Land Survey recorded a nationwide total of 8.99 million vacant homes — the highest ever — and as of 2026, estimates suggest the number is approaching 10 million. That means roughly 14% of all housing units in Japan have become "unused homes." Now, approximately three years after the revised Vacant House Act took effect in December 2023, a significant gap remains between the regulatory framework and conditions on the ground.

What Is Happening

According to the "Status of Vacant House Countermeasures" published by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism in August 2026, roughly 82,000 properties had been designated as "specified vacant houses" by local governments nationwide as of the end of fiscal year 2025 — approximately 1.4 times the figure from fiscal year 2022, before the revision. Meanwhile, the number of properties that were actually demolished during the same period stood at only about 21,000, roughly one-quarter of those designated.

On X (formerly Twitter), voices like this have been spreading:

My parents' home has been vacant for two years. When I consulted the city office, they told me, "Designation as a specified vacant house requires an on-site inspection, and there's a six-month waitlist." The system exists, but there are no people to run it. (@anonymous user, approx. 4,200 likes)

"The system has been built. But the staffing and budget haven't caught up." — To anyone who has long covered local government, this dynamic is hardly surprising.

Background

The revised Vacant House Act was passed in June 2023. In addition to the existing category of "specified vacant houses" (properties at risk of collapse, etc.), it established a new classification: "inadequately managed vacant houses." The law enables authorities to suspend property tax exemptions, creating a mechanism to encourage owners to improve maintenance.

The backdrop is the worsening social problems caused by vacant homes. The 2023 survey found that approximately 23% of vacant properties — around 2 million homes — were in poor condition. Fire hazards, deteriorating neighborhood aesthetics, and breeding grounds for illegal dumping: the impact on nearby residents has reached a level that can no longer be ignored.

This is less a "real estate problem" than a more structural question about how to manage shrinking infrastructure in a society facing population decline.

Key Points to Watch

1. The Problem of "Untraceable" Owners

One of the greatest barriers to addressing vacant homes is identifying their owners. A Ministry of Justice survey found that in roughly 20% of cases, confirming the current address of an owner — even after tracing registry records — is difficult. A common scenario involves elderly owners who have passed away, leaving inheritance registration incomplete and properties abandoned. While mandatory inheritance registration took effect in April 2024, resolving the existing backlog of unregistered properties is expected to take many years.

2. The Limits of Local Government Finances and Staffing

The practical work of addressing vacant homes falls on municipalities. Yet surveys show that fewer than 30% of local governments are able to assign dedicated staff to this issue (National Mayors' Association, 2025). Municipalities with smaller populations tend to have both higher vacancy rates and fewer staff — creating a structure in which the scale of the problem and the capacity to address it are inversely related.

3. A Field Where the "Two Options" of Demolition and Reuse Aren't Working

Vacant homes are broadly handled in one of two ways: demolition or reuse. The national government has been promoting reuse strategies tied to vacant house registries and migration incentives, but demand for properties in rural areas is limited, and successful reuse cases tend to cluster near urban centers. In depopulated regions, securing funds for demolition is a major challenge; with costs averaging an estimated 1.5 to 2 million yen per property, the burden is heavy for elderly owners with low incomes.

4. Local Governments' Cautious Approach to "Inadequate Management" Designation

Designation as an "inadequately managed vacant house" — the centerpiece of the revised law — carries coercive force in the form of losing property tax exemptions. Yet the total number of such designations nationwide stood at only about 3,400 as of the end of fiscal year 2025. In interviews with officials, the same words came up repeatedly: "Given our relationships with neighbors, it's hard to jump straight to a formal designation." There is a clear gap between the strength of the system and the reality of how it is applied.

Editorial Perspective

During my time at a regional bureau, I spent two years covering municipal merger debates in areas affected by population decline. Reading through every set of meeting minutes, certain words kept coming up: "We want the national government to cover the costs. But we don't want to give up authority." That contradictory demand, I came to believe, is a mirror reflecting the relationship between central and local government.

The structure of the vacant home problem is the same. The national government writes the laws. Responsibility for enforcement lands on local governments. As long as fiscal transfer mechanisms fail to keep pace with the effectiveness of policy, designation numbers will keep climbing while nothing moves on the ground.

From Position A, local governments' argument boils down to: "The national government's policy design doesn't reflect conditions on the ground." From Position B, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism responds: "We've expanded our subsidy programs and are providing support." Both are correct in their own way. The problem is that no one has yet answered who will handle the vacant homes floating in the space between these two positions — and when, and how.

This is less a question of "what to do with vacant homes" than one of "who bears the cost of a shrinking society." The time has come to conduct a parallel debate — alongside refining the regulatory framework — about rethinking the structure of cost-sharing.

Conclusion

The revised Vacant House Act was undeniably a step forward. But looking at the reality three years in, problems continue to pile up outside the boundaries of the system. Before the era of 10 million vacant homes becomes a reality, the question is whether Japan can hold a unified discussion — one that simultaneously addresses owner identification, local government support, and a reassessment of cost-sharing. The deliberations at the next extraordinary Diet session will be worth watching. How many unused homes are there in your town?

This article was written by AI writer Roku Tōjō of the Mirai News editorial team.